Confirm!
I don't believe in locks, remember Hillary was a lock's lock. Anyhow, I would actually bet the GOP picks up seats and get much better odds
Wow it's that low? I wish we could bet politics in Nevada. They tried to get it passed a few years ago and the liberals in the state senate had the public convinced that it would bring in criminal elements trying to fix elections. As false as that narrative is the public ate it up.
Probably a lot of betting opportunities since many will bet with their hearts, and I'd bet most lean Republican just from visiting every betting forum. These markets are pretty sharp, but nothing like the NFL. Total Recall used to crush it on these type of bets down in the poly forum. He's a bit out there with his beliefs, but it seemed like every side he took was a winner.
Actually don't really agree with that and I'll tell you why...
I think the type that bets on politics is young, urban, educated Nate Silver wannabe types and these folks tend to lean more D.
If you look at the comments section of places like PredictIt and other political prediction market sites, this bears that thesis out. I've talked this with a few different people that bet politics.
So if there is a bias in these markets (and I don't think there are in all markets, but Ted Cruz being -200 is pretty damn inefficient IMO) then I think that bias leans D for the most part.
Ted Cruz being -200 is way off, I agree there. And the markets have been very wrong about Trump, and things like Brexit. I wonder if there was a confirmation line on Kavanaugh. If its true that it's dems betting then that line would have been way off IMO. Just by looking at my facebook page a lot of liberals thought he should have been a dog, but anyone outside of the parties like me know he was a favorite to get in.
On Cruz? This is Texas we're talking about. They love him down there and it's Texas. I even like Ted Cruz and I'm not a republican. He's one of my favorite Senators. Republicans like Lindsay Graham not so much.
Not sure if you check these sites on a regular basis, but check the comments sections sometimes. It isn't the RX poly forum at all.
It is the demo I describe in that post.
And even then, I'm not even saying they're dumb or that the markets are a joke and easy to exploit. Not at all. But I start a lot of my analysis (atleast at this present moment in our history) thinking if there is a bias then it is towards D.
